A hybrid model for predicting missile impact damages based on k-nearest neighbors and Bayesian optimization

Abstract

Due to the increase of missile performance, the safety design requirements of military and industrial reinforced concrete (RC) structures (i.e., bunkers, nuclear power plants, etc.) also increase. Estimating damage levels in the design stage becomes a crucial task and requires more accuracy. Thus, this study proposed a hybrid machine learning model which is based on k-nearest neighbors (KNN) and Bayesian optimization (BO), named as BO-KNN, for predicting the local damages of reinforced concrete (RC) panels under missile impact loading. In the proposed BO-KNN, the hyperparameters of the KNN were optimized by using the BO which is a well-established optimization algorithm. Accordingly, the KNN was trained on an experimental dataset that consists of 254 impact tests to predict four levels (or classes) of damages including perforation, scabbing, penetration, and no damage. Due to the unbalance of the number of tests in each damage class, an over-sampling technique called BorderlineSMOTE was employed as a balancing solution. The predictability of the proposed model was investigated by comparing with the benchmark models including non-optimized KNN, multilayer perceptron (MLP), and decision tree (DT). Accuracy, F1-score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) were utilized to evaluate the performance of these models. The implementation results showed that the proposed BO-KNN model outperformed the other benchmark models with the average class accuracy of 68.05%, F1-score = 0.641, and AUC = 85.8%. Thus, the proposed model can be introduced as a foundation for developing a tool for predicting the local damage of RC panels under the missile impact in the future.

Keywords:

impact damage; k-nearest neighbors; Bayesian optimization; oversampling; imbalanced data; RC panel.